A look at the possibility of online poker legislation in 2012

As we head into 2012 the one question on just about every US poker players’ mind has to be, is online poker going to be legalized in 2012? In my opinion, the answer to this question is about 75% no, which I’ll explain below.

First off, who is going to be the person who steps up in Congress as the main advocate for online poker legislation? Joe Barton appears to be in the online poker fight only for the campaign contributions, Barney Frank is retiring (but will be around for the 2011 Lame Duck Session), Harry Reid, Robert Menendez, Jim McDermott??? The problem is, everything gets blocked in the Senate, and the Republicans control the House of Representatives.

Secondly, a lot of people are looking to the lame-duck session at the end of 2012 as the possible vehicle for online gaming legislation (since outgoing congressmen and senators can vote their conscience and not their donors) but there is a major flaw in this thinking, which is: Everything hinges on what happens in the election (and I don’t mean the Presidency).

If the Democrats get slaughtered and lose the Senate the Republicans are likely to put a halt to anything that they try to push through in the lame duck session. If the Democrats manage to hold on to the Senate and possibly narrow the gap or takeover in the House of Representatives online poker has a chance of finding its way into another larger bill. And we just might have some US Poker Sites.

Finally, Congress works really, really, slow, and this is even truer when they are trying to repeal or change an existing law, opposed to passing new legislation, where none currently exists, like the UIGEA in 2006. I know everyone thinks that with the major casinos now endorsing online poker and setting up their lobbying groups that things will get done, but look how long it took for DADT repeal, look at the nonsensical fight over the Bush Tax Cuts, look at how the debt ceiling debate was distorted by both parties… Congress is always 5-10 years behind the rest of the country.

Still, even if legislation is passed at the end of 2012, you are looking at the very least a year to get everything in order (state exemptions and every other bit of legalese that needs to be solved) and probably another year before the industry is up and running… See you in 2015!